In Lemonde today I read a very balanced and interesting position about Libya.
“The present conditions of the world oil market are indeed conditions where oil prices, after falling briefly under the shock of the global crisis, have resumed their upward movement, several months before the revolutionary wave in North Africa and the Middle East. This, in a condition of unresolved global economic crisis, with an extremely fragile fake recovery. Under such conditions, an oil embargo on Libya is simply not an option. The massacre had to be prevented. The best scenario for Western powers became the fall of the regime, thus relieving them of the problem of coping with it. A lesser evil option for them would be a lasting stalemate and de facto division of the country between West and East, with oil exports resumed from both provinces, or exclusively from the main fields located in the East under rebel control.” … Read more!
What I personally expect to happen is a long large conflict rising with many killings, reducing the population of Libya drastically making the military-industrial complex richer at the same time as it is making poor people in Europe poorer. 1 million people killed at least is a also a reasonable genocide to expect here, as this happened in Iraq.
Khadaffi will naturally eventually be blamed for it. Libya will become “democratic” with a powerless Monarchy and the oil will flow to Europe … until we reach the bottom of the well with a surprising surprised slurp sound.
Then comes the real challange… and looking at the history of Easter Islands end, we should try to be prepared and understand what exponential growth really means, because then we would be able to turn put in the reverse well in time before we hit the ice berg.